Hold off LEDs and Save? (1 Viewer)

[TexanReef]

Interesting but obvious. Like every commodity, LEDs will follow the supply and demand curve. And like any electronic, what you buy today will be obsolete tomorrow.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...to-plummet-by-2015-vantagepoint-ceo-says.html

 

[RGH69]

Yep, The economy of scale will bring the prices down on 3000K-5000K LEDs since that is what is typically used for general lighting. I doubt that it will be a 90% reduction. The big price drops won't happen until LEDs get closer to their theoretical efficiency limit of 400lm/watt. Until then no manufacturer will spend too much money on large mass production. The LEDs that we need in this hobby are specialized and those will drop some but not a bunch. Also, the LEDs need to be mounted and cooled so those costs will not change much. So, even if the LEDs do drop by 90%, complete fixtures may drop by 40-50%.

But back to your point, it is good news for those that don't want to drop the big bucks now and wait a few years.

 

[RR-MAN]

Yeah I don't think the reef version leds will drop in price that much.

 

[TexanReef]

Yeah I don't think the reef version leds will drop in price that much.

Could be -- I've done little research in the field though I plan to build my own LED fixture at some point.

I do, however, think that the "reef versions" of the LEDs we use are more an adaptation from some other industry's demand. I doubt the reefing community is large enough to drive the fabrication of any specific electronic component. As such, if the "phantom" industry I've just conjured increases demand, we'll be the beneficiaries of the hopeful supply increase.

Again, LEDs are a growing electronic market. You’ll always be able to buy today’s Wonder Chip at yesterday’s prices in a month or so.

Which brings up another subject (is it rude to thread-jack your own thread?). For those whom have gone to LEDs and used the excuse “No bulb changes for years!”, what are really the odds of you being happy and not upgrading as much more efficient and perhaps colorful LEDs hit the market? Kinda’ blows that justification out of the water, I think.

 

[RGH69]

[ what are really the odds of you being happy and not upgrading as much more efficient and perhaps colorful LEDs hit the market? Kinda’ blows that justification out of the water, I think.

That is the specific reason that I have helped develop an LED lighting system where the end user can change LEDs and associated drivers at will. That way if a new LED comes out you can simply replace one or more of the LEDs and (if necessary) the drivers. Although we will be the first to do this I think others in this industry will soon follow.

 

[gabe_j]

bulb changes are easy snip your wires/apply thermal grease/bolt back down new leds/solder>enjoy. not as easy as rob's rig but its not difficult so long as your not using thermal adhesive. and the stickers now make it even easier.

 

[RocketSurgeon]

[ what are really the odds of you being happy and not upgrading as much more efficient and perhaps colorful LEDs hit the market? Kinda’ blows that justification out of the water, I think.

That is the specific reason that I have helped develop an LED lighting system where the end user can change LEDs and associated drivers at will. That way if a new LED comes out you can simply replace one or more of the LEDs and (if necessary) the drivers. Although we will be the first to do this I think others in this industry will soon follow.

it is a good thought, but if it is like any other computer part, the components change. its hard to upgrade computers because the parts continue to change. the serial cable changes, or memory card changes. i just wonder how practical your motherboard will actually be. I'm curious to see how it plays out.

 

[flexrac]

Satisled, not cree's but you save. so go shopping and save now.

 

[BigRick]

It's all because of new regulations. How is obama going to create 100K new engineering jobs for the commercial building market? It's because congress has already passed laws to phase out the 100 yr old high energy using light bulb. New regulations are going to require commercial buildings and apartments to meet the new codes. What will those be? The new style T5 fixtures and LED lights. If you close down one market (old school bulbs) it will shift the demand over to the other market (CFL/LED) and bring the price down. There is a video of obama doing an interview that came out last week. There was a banner in the background that said something like "Cree welcomes president obama." Makes sense huh?

 

[sbfuller]

what about moving past LED's to LEP?

http://diyprojectorkits.com/store/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=19&products_id=45

for $700 and this is brighter than LED's and MH's while using 250 watts and is almost identical to natural sunlight.

 

[flexrac]

If mem serves me correctly, you have to dim the light to get the right color spectrum, doing this will lower the par. Or you can suppliment with actinics, via leds or vho or t-5.

 

[RGH69]

what about moving past LED's to LEP?

http://diyprojectorkits.com/store/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=19&products_id=45

for $700 and this is brighter than LED's and MH's while using 250 watts and is almost identical to natural sunlight.

Yes, the single bulb is brighter than LEDs but at $700 you can DIY an LED system that is brighter than LEP. LEP is actually too bright for most coral growth applications since anything over 300 PAR is a waste. LEP also puts out a lot of heat. It is also not practical for most aquariums because of the light coming from such a small area. So in a standard 90g tank or larger you would need more than one whereas LED is still spread out.

LEP is great for very deep tanks where penetration is important. If I had a tank that was deeper than 36 inches then I would go LEP. Someday I will setup a really deep tank and I am planning for LEP supplemented with Blue LEDs with very narrow lenses pointed at corals.

 

[TexanReef]

There is a certain geek factor knowing you've a miniture star sitting above your tank.

Plasma is kewl.

 

[gabe_j]

oh man i'd love my very own star! i want a freakishly large wall tank to light with them. and do a "real" looking reef set up condensed so that it goes from high light up top to nps at the bottom oh yes its the dream tank! maintaining it... would cost more than i care to calculate lol. but oh how awesome it would be!

 

[flexrac]

Hongt713 had a tank perfect for this, but he moved and sold it, have not seen the build thread from the new owner marsh member thenewone.

 

[RGH69]

Hongt713 had a tank perfect for this, but he moved and sold it, have not seen the build thread from the new owner marsh member thenewone.

Yep, his 500g tank would have been perfect for LEP. Whoever bought that from him needs to consider it.